LMS Market Overview - Bizdev working group meeting

Discussions - Public
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Hi,

A recap of a recent bizdev meeting that has an interesting update about the state of the current LMSs usage and evolutions.

One highlight:

Phil Hill’s “squid diagram” of LMS market share, noting that Open edX was now on his radar, especially after the WGU announcement

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Open edX WG-BizDev Meeting Summary - May 7, 2025

Attendees

Abdul Ahad TP, Abstract Technology GmbH, Andrei Moskalev, Angie Ruíz, Annabel Cellini, Bohuslava Zhyvko, Chelsea Rathbun, Ed Zarecor, Eden Huthmacher, Jenna Makowski, Jorge Londoño, Juan Camilo Montoya, Mahnoor Sarwat, Meraklı Karga, Natalia Vynogradenko, Pankaj Bhatia, Santiago Suarez, Ste Trabby, Vineet Manuja, and others.

Introduction and Background (00:03:00)

The meeting began with Eden Huthmacher facilitating introductions as participants joined. Annabel Cellini then introduced herself and provided her background:

  • She worked at Pearson for 17 years, ultimately leading strategy and marketing for Pearson North America
  • She also worked for Southern New Hampshire University and most recently for Coursera
  • She had been working with Axim Open edX since fall 2024

Annabel explained that she would be presenting research and insights gathered over the past 3-4 months regarding market opportunities for Open edX. She described the presentation as covering market sizing and trends, how Axim is leveraging those insights, and initial pilot activities they’re pursuing.

Market Analysis and Trends (00:09:00)

Annabel shared key market trends with a focus on the US market:

Higher Education Trends

  • US universities were facing an enrollment cliff for traditional-age learners and seeking new delivery models
  • Focus was shifting to adult learners and blurring education-work boundaries
  • There was increased demand for hybrid programs
  • AI was having a dramatic impact on content delivery and services
  • Primarily online learning institutions were growing significantly faster than traditional higher education
  • Dual enrollment (high school students also enrolled in post-secondary education) was driving growth for community colleges

Workforce Education and Upskilling

  • The World Economic Forum suggested that 50% of the global working population would need to upskill or reskill by 2030
  • Governments were making significant investments ($20 billion spent by US federal government on upskilling in 2021-22)
  • Corporate and enterprise training represented the largest segment of the global market (approximately $370 billion)
  • The US represented about 35% of the global workforce education market
  • There was increased demand for “just-in-time” bite-sized content

Non-Degree Programs (00:18:00)

  • Non-degree programs were growing significantly faster than traditional degree programs
  • Approximately 45% of students enrolled in community colleges in the US
  • Non-degree offerings had grown by 115% since spring 2020
  • 29% of academic programs in the US were non-degree programs

K-12 Market (00:19:00)

  • K-12 was the largest segment of the global education market ($2.5 trillion)
  • The LMS segment within K-12 was worth $2.8 billion
  • K-12 was a slow-growing market in the US (plateaued due to population shifts)
  • Globally, K-12 had a 3.5% compound annual growth rate
  • The US represented about 40% of global K-12 revenue
  • The K-12 LMS market was highly consolidated with 12 large players accounting for about 50% of the market
  • Unlike higher education, K-12 had seen less movement to online learning, with most remaining in-person or hybrid

Micro-credentials and Competency-Based Learning (00:23:00)

Annabel highlighted the growth of micro-credentials and competency-based learning:

  • Institutional leadership saw alternative non-degree micro-credentials as an important strategy for their institution’s future
  • National governments were creating frameworks to drive upskilling through micro-credentials
  • Students preferred hybrid learning models
  • Competency-based learning was growing, with 82% of institutions expecting the number of CBE programs to increase over the next 5 years
  • WGU was highlighted as an example of an institution successfully implementing competency-based programs

Reskilling and Online Certification Market (00:28:00)

Annabel explained that the reskilling and online certification market was:

  • The second-largest segment in global education
  • The fastest-growing segment in the market
  • Delivered through various channels including national initiatives, corporate training, community colleges, and four-year institutions

Key trends included:

  • Collaboration between educational institutions and industry
  • Demand for atomizing content (breaking larger courses into smaller chunks)
  • Focus on durable skills (soft skills)
  • Emphasis on lifelong learning

Competitive Landscape Analysis (00:33:00)

Annabel shared insights about the competitive market:

Regarding LMS selection criteria, Annabel noted that based on hundreds of RFPs analyzed: - Cost was the top consideration - Reputation and who else uses the platform was the second most important factor - Technical requirements, customer service, and support came in third

Strategic Focus Areas for Open edX (00:48:00)

Based on her analysis, Annabel identified two key strategic focus areas for Open edX:

  1. Workforce and Upskilling through Micro-credentials
  2. Low-cost, rapid course creation for online asynchronous courses
  3. Focus on non-credit stackable and competency-based programs
  4. Target community colleges and similar institutions
  5. Global Workforce Development Initiatives
  6. Build on success stories like Skill India Digital Hub and Future X
  7. Target government initiatives and large-scale programs
  8. Leverage existing use cases to drive demand in other countries

Annabel noted that corporate upskilling represented a third potential area with similar technical needs but different go-to-market strategies.

Discussion and Questions (00:40:00)

Several questions and points were raised during the discussion:

  1. Eden asked about the correlation between non-degree growth and skills-based hiring
  2. Annabel acknowledged that while there was government and philanthropic push for skills-based hiring, employers had not moved as quickly as hoped
  3. She noted there was still a bias toward degrees in some industries
  4. Bohuslava asked about engaging more universities to appear on Phil Hill’s diagram
  5. Annabel explained that competing directly with Canvas in the traditional on-campus higher ed space would require hundreds of millions in sales and marketing
  6. She suggested focusing on segments where Open edX has strong product-market fit rather than trying to compete across the entire market
  7. Vineet raised concerns about the US/Western focus of the research
  8. He noted that Asia Pacific would be approximately a $600 billion market by 2030 (twice the size of North America)
  9. Annabel acknowledged the bias but explained that the focus was in part due to Open edX being historically under-indexed in the US market
  10. She highlighted that global upskilling represented one of the two key focus areas

Current Activities and Next Steps (00:57:00)

Annabel outlined current activities to support the strategic focus areas:

  • Working with Jenna and others to identify pilots to prove the market hypothesis
  • Considering how to package or bundle Open edX core with additional elements for specific market segments
  • Building awareness for the platform through conference attendance and analyst relations
  • Reaching out to influential analysts like Paul Fain and Phil Hill
  • Developing case studies to showcase successful implementations
  • Conducting webinars with thought leaders like WGU
  • Submitting proposals for upcoming conferences

Conclusion (01:01:00)

Due to time constraints, the meeting ended before Annabel could complete her presentation. Eden suggested that Annabel return at the next meeting to continue the discussion and invited participants to post questions in advance through the Slack channel.

Agreed Next Steps

  • Annabel would return at the next meeting to continue the presentation
  • Participants would submit specific questions or areas of interest through Slack
  • Annabel offered to tailor future presentations to address specific segments or regions of interest
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